Cycle Trading

Silver had a big day gaining 2.37%.

Keep in mind that the silver daily cycle has entered the timing band to seek out a low. Sure, silver can still see some more up days before forming a swing high. I would think that silver should back test the break out as it declines into its daily cycle low.

Also keep in mind that the dollar is due to begin a new daily and possibly a new intermediate cycle within days. I would think that a new intermediate cycle for the dollar combined with the silver daily cycle getting old would result in a daily cycle correction in silver.

Monday was day 22 for the dollar.
The dollar has been coiling inside a triangle consolidation for the past 12 sessions.

The dollar normally prints a daily cycle low every 18 – 25 days. The dollar is beginning to run out of time to decline into a daily cycle low. In order to form a daily cycle low, the dollar will need to break below the day 13 intra-day low. And who knows, maybe that is what silver was sniffing out when it broke out today.

Another possibility is for the dollar to tag the lower triangle leg and then reverse for an upper leg break out.
Should this happen, then the daily cycle low would not be the low printed on day 13 but the day of the last lower trend line tag.
Since the current dollar cycle peaked on day 3 and broke below the previous cycle low, we have a failed left translated daily cycle. Once a low is printed it should result in not only a new daily cycle, but a new intermediate cycle as well.

So regardless of which scenario unfolds with the dollar, a new daily and possibly a new intermediate cycle should be upon us soon.

Let’s take a look at the Miners

While the Miners had an up day, they still formed a daily swing high.
At 19 days, the Miners are in the timing band for a low and a break of the (red) trend line will confirm the daily cycle is in decline.

So silver, gold and the miners have entered their timing bands for seeking out their daily cycle lows. And the dollar should print a low any day and rally out of it pressuring the precious metal complex.

Instead of chasing, it may be wise to wait for the next daily cycle low.