Cycle Trading

The dollar has formed a swing high in the overnight.

Our framework has the dollar currently on week 12 of the intermediate cycle.
If the dollar were to decline into an intermediate cycle low, that would begin with a failed, left translated daily cycle.

A failed, left translated daily cycle would need to peak by day 12. Most peak by day 8.

So the question is if the swing high formed is significant?

Well it is too early to tell.

A daily cycle trend line break would help.
At day 4, it may be too early to define a daily cycle trend line.
A trend line can be draw from the 6/29 & 7/19 pivots.
I would view a break below this trend line as significant.

Certainly a break below the previous low would be significant because we would have a failed daily cycle.

We need to keep in mind that the dollar could reverse and still print a higher high today.

So until we have a break of the trend line, or even better, a failed daily cycle, then while promising, this is simply noise …