Cycle Trading

Gold

Gold’s daily cycle stands at day 10.

Thursday saw gold bounce off the intermediate cycle trend line.
The dollar rolling over into a daily cycle low just may provide the catalyst for gold to break free of its consolidation pattern.

The weekly chart also shows gold in a consolidation pattern.

Gold is currently on week 8 of the intermediate cycle.
Gold as been coiling and bounces strongly every time it tags the lower trend line.
The aforementioned daily cycle dollar decline should help gold break free.
A bullish break out will lead me to consider relabeling this week from week 8 to week 28, and not recognizing week 20 as an intermediate cycle low.

The yearly cycle also shows the current consolidation.

I am leaning towards recognizing December as a yearly cycle low.
The break of the declining trend line will signal a new yearly cycle has begun.

The Miners

The Miners printed a reversal on Thursday and a swing low on Friday.

A break of the declining (red) trend line will force us to decide if Friday was day one of a new daily cycle. The shortest daily Miner daily cycle from the 08 low was 12 days.

A second interpretation takes into consideration the longer trend.

Both interpretations show the Miners printing a failed 2nd daily cycle.
While the second interpretation only has a marginal cycle trend line break, the timing of the lows is more consistent with the regular timing band.

Both interpretations have a swing low formed with the possibility of a new daily cycle beginning on Friday.

Either interpretation is congruent with the weekly cycle interpretation.

The Miners printed a failed daily cycle, which signals an intermediate cycle decline.

I think that its is certainly possible for the Miners to have printed a shortened weekly cycle following the three year low.

If, in fact, a new daily cycle began on Friday, then a weekly swing low and a break of the declining (blue) trend line confirms a new weekly cycle.

It seems that both gold and the Miners over the past 8 weeks have been coiling/building up energy and appear ready to uncoil.

The yearly cycle shows a reversal printing in May at month 11.

June formed a swing low and so far July has not shown any follow through.
The Miners will need to break above the declining blue trend line to confirm a new yearly cycle.

The CRB

In Contrast to Gold and the Miners, the CRB is showing good strength

The CRB appears to be forming a high and tight flag formation that is ready to break out to the up side.

The weekly cycle showed nice follow through this week.

Last week the CRB penetrated the declining trend line and then retreated.

This week the CRB closed clearly and convincingly above the declining trend line to confirm a new weekly cycle.

The yearly cycle seems to be progressing nicely.

July has formed a monthly swing low and is in the process of testing the declining trend line.

A break above the declining trend line confirms a new three year cycle

Bonds

Bonds had been consolidating over the previous 2 weeks before breaking out this past week.

A swing high was formed on Friday, day 16.
I anticipate a decline into a daily cycle low

I believe that TLT began a new weekly cycle in June and this was week 3 of the new weekly cycle.

I am watching how this plays out.
The anticipated decline into a daily cycle low holds the potential of printing a swing high on the weekly chart.

That would make the week three peak a lower high.

The yearly cycle currently has a month 3 peak and stands at month 4.

A break below 124 forms a monthly swing high.