Gold Finds Support …

July 12, 2012

Gold found support today and reversed off the trend line drawn from the intermediate cycle low.

As we discussed yesterday, until the daily cycle low is breached, it isn’t.
And Thursday’s action keeps the bullish scenario for gold alive.

The Miners had a reversal today.

With a little follow through, the miners will print a swing low.
Now the question is if a swing low is printed, would that make this a new daily cycle?

I would be inclined to label a swing low and a corresponding trend line break as a new daily cycle.

The shortest daily cycle I have seen for the Miners is a 12day cycle back in 2011.

What would a new daily cycle mean for the weekly cycle?
Currently, this is week 8 of the intermediate cycle.

Since the Miners are currently in a failed daily cycle, I would view a weekly swing low followed by a weekly trend line break as a new intermediate cycle.

Gold and the Miners price action seem to be a good sign with the dollar yet again printing a higher high.

The dollar’s daily cycle stands at day 16. The dollar usually prints its daily cycle low between days 18 & 28. The dollar did retreat off the daily high. The dollar is also starting to get stretched above the 10 day moving average. If a swing high forms, it could lead to a decline into the daily cycle low.

In Summary, Thursday kept the bullish case for gold and the miners alive.
Next we wait to if we get some follow through …

11 responses to “Gold Finds Support …”

Thursday, July 12th – What is there to say? – Page 5

July 12, 2012

[…] 322 Gold Finds Support … | Cycle Trading […]

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Bob Kudla (@Bobloveshawaii)

July 12, 2012

Outstanding report.

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hyeu

July 12, 2012

thank you for your report

Reply
ALEX

July 13, 2012

L.M.

When you say ,

“Since the Miners are currently in a failed daily cycle, I would view a weekly swing low followed by a weekly trend line break as a new intermediate cycle.”

You are saying we would be at the 1st DCL? Peronally I would like that, because the last 2 were W-E-A-K!! THX

Reply
1. likesmoneystudies
  
  July 13, 2012
  
  Alex,
  
  If the Miners can recover here and form a daily swing low and trend line break, I would view that as the start of a new daily cycle.
  
  A Failed daily cycle usually signals an intermediate cycle decline.
  
  Sometimes there are more than one failed daily cycle in an intermediate cycle, which tends to happen during a yearly cycle low.
  
  Assuming that the yearly cycle low printed in May, then this is the first intermediate cycle from the yearly cycle low and therefore I would not expect to failed daily cycles in a row.
  
  Consequently, if the Miners lose the May pivot then I would have to consider that the three year low did not print in May.
  
  Reply
James

July 13, 2012

LM,

With gold holding the intermediate cycle trendline, do you believe gold put in a half cycle low and set the daily cycle trendline yesterday? If not there would be a swing high with a trendline break correct?

Reply
1. likesmoneystudies
  
  July 13, 2012
  
  A swing ow followed by a new high would mean that gold printed a half cycle low.
  
  In this situation since yesterday tested the daily cycle low, I would look for a trend line to emerge off of Thursday’s low.
  
  Reply
Trond

July 13, 2012

LM, since miners usually leads gold, have ever miners had a failed daily cycle while gold later in the simultaneous cycle avoided it?

PM’s are usually weak in election years, check the miners charts, always lower or equal to the June level in December or January even if autumns should be seasonally strong.
That probably has something to do with the $’s statistical strength in election years (check seasonalcharts.com)

1984 http://scharts.co/NeHQAE
1988 http://scharts.co/NeHWbH
1992 http://scharts.co/MRZhMK
1996 http://scharts.co/NeJan2
2000 http://scharts.co/NeJhiv
2004 http://scharts.co/NeJLFq
2008 http://scharts.co/NdxqF8

Reply
1. likesmoneystudies
  
  July 13, 2012
  
  Trond,
  
  That’s a great question that I have not studied. Now I am curious to find out 🙂
  
  Thanks for the charts on the PM’s.
  
  You make an interesting point.
  
  Reply
ALEX

July 14, 2012

TROND

I found that to be an interesting point too, however one thing that I would also
take into consideration is that the 1980’s charts are POST blow off top in Gold. Not during the Bullish phase.
1990’s the Bull hadnt really resumed its upward path either , BUT – WHEN THE BULL RESUMED…I didnt see the 2004 chart as having a lower price at yr end . It dipped back to lows in May the following yr,.
2008 was..well…. ……2008 : ] , and this year has already crashed down. Could it retest GDX $39 yes, but I would have thought sooner than Yr end.

BUT , YOU BROUGHT UP A GREAT OBSERVATION, And I too thank you for the charts!!

ALEX

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July 14, 2012

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