Cycle Trading

The dollar printed another higher high today.
Thursday was day 8 for the dollar’s daily cycle.
If this is the terminal daily cycle for the current weekly cycle then the expectation is for a failed left translated daily cycle.

In the weekend report we discussed being open to the possibility of this new daily cycle also marking a new intermediate cycle.

This last intermediate cycle emerged from a yearly cycle low.
It peaked on week 13.
It may have printed a bottom on week 16.
Week 17 formed a swing low and a declining trend line break.

This is certainly beginning to look like a new weekly cycle.

Two of the signals that a new intermediate cycle is imminent is a left translated daily cycle that fails (breaks below the previous daily cycle low)
The Previous daily cycle was a left translated cycle, but it did not fail.

Not all intermediate cycles conclude with a failed daily cycle, but most do.
We may have witnessed an exception.

Of course, this raises the question with gold.

Did gold just print a failed daily cycle or was this really a stretched first daily cycle?

That may depend if the dollar rolls over by day 12 or not.

But the CRB held up rather well considering the monster day the dollar had

Having said all of this, the dollar could still roll over on Monday or Tuesday and a failed terminal daily cycle can still be in play.

Today certainly raised more questions than gave answers.

Which I intend to discuss further in the weekend report.