A Bullish Turn of Events …

June 10, 2012

The dollar printed a swing high tonight.
Does that mean the daily cycle peaked on day 1?

Recall on Friday the dollar formed a swing low and broke above the declining trend line confirming a new daily cycle.

Part of my reasoning is the fact that the low printed on day 26 is getting toward the later part of the timing band for a low.

Now that there is an agreement on the table to recapitalize the Spanish banks
The dollar broke decidedly lower.

I think that it is quite possible that this last cycle peaked on day 1.

Since the weekly cycle is entering week 15, this new daily cycle will likely be the last daily cycle of the current intermediate cycle. Therefore we expect a failed left translated daily cycle.

The recent bullishness of the dollar pushed the pendulum to such an extreme that an extremely left translated daily cycle is not out of the question.

What does that mean for the Yellow Metal?

Well entering the weekend I thought that Friday set the daily cycle trend line.

Now it looks like the trend line was set on the previous Friday, June1.
This past Friday breaks the trend line off of that making Monday day 1.

We should know in a few days if in fact the dollar’s daily cycle peaked after one day or not and whether gold is on day 17 or day 1.

But for now, it looks like Spain has managed to kick the can further down the road,
giving the bulls temporarily an upper hand …

4 responses to “A Bullish Turn of Events …”

Mike

June 11, 2012

today is a prime example why cycles work no better than anything other trailing indicator. Its easy to analyze 2 weeks after the fact and say ‘oh, 2 weeks ago was the DCL’ blah blah…..or easy to make calls in a bull ‘C-wave’ or whatever you call it because even if you are wrong, the bull saves you

Reply
1. Jack Dog
  
  June 11, 2012
  
  Mike,
  Do you have a suggestion for a leading indicator that provides a better read on the market direction, I’m interested.
  Jack Dog
  
  Reply
  1. Mike
    
    June 11, 2012
    
    No one does, thats my point. If I did I’d be on a beach in the Bahamas….
2. likesmoneystudies
  
  June 11, 2012
  
  Mike,
  
  I am sorry that cycles do not appear to work for you.
  
  I do not think any one system works 100 percent
  
  It seems that with the dollar reversing higher, you have used that as a back drop to inform me of your view on cycles.
  
  I think if you take a small enough sample size, any system will not hold up to scrutiny.
  
  I like cycles because they help me identify bottoms.
  Once a trade is entered, the bottom identified becomes my stop and limits risk.
  When you say the bull corrects any timing errors you are correct.
  But knowing cycles helps to spot bottoms and enjoy more of a ride.
  
  However, if there is something that does work 100% of the time you are welcomed to share.
  
  Reply

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