Cycle Trading

Wednesday was Day 25 for the dollar’s daily cycle.
The dollar clearly broke through the cycle trend line printing another lower low.

This confirms the dollar moving into a daily cycle low.
This break lower was also confirming a move into a daily cycle low is the Schaff Trend Cycle breaking lower.

This kind of move lower by the dollar would raise the expectation of a good move higher by the miners.

Well the Miners did gap higher on the open, then filled the gap and closed below the open but still higher for the day.
Now a break below 448 will see the HUI print a swing high.

If Tuesday was the daily cycle peak, it will leave behind a 14 day peak and 24.68% run, not bad for a first daily cycle.

Now tomorrow Ben can come out and announce some kind of QE and which could kick off another leg higher for the Miners.

Maybe equities are anticipating some type of favorable announcement tomorrow by the Fed …

Equities had a monster day rallying 2.3% on 92% up volume.
A 90% plus up volume day is one of the confirmations of a new intermediate cycle.
Despite the huge day on big volume, there are still some concerns.
First, equities have yet to print a break of the declining cycle trend line.

Without the trend line break, I am reluctant to declare a new daily cycle for stocks.

The other concern is that this is the second day in the row with the SPY topping the Selling on Strength.
Tuesday the SPY printed a mild 71 million, but today the Spy printed 263 million.
Now add that to the 58 Million SOS on 5/21, 222 Million SOS on 5/22, 
142 Million SOS on 5/24 and 155 million on 5/30 totals to 803 million SOS over the past week couple of weeks.
I would expect one or more big Buying on Strength days to kick off a new intermediate equity cycle and instead there was been over 3/4 billion in Selling on Strength.
So while stocks were good, this is a growing concern…

It seems that we are waiting to see what Ben has up his sleeves …