The 5/18 Weekend Report – Part 2

Gold

Gold printed its daily cycle low on Wednesday.

Gold then formed a swing low on Thursday.

The break of the declining trend line confirms Friday as day 2 of the new daily cycle.

This new daily cycle is likely to mark a new intermediate cycle.

Gold just finished week 20 of the intermediate cycle.
That is right smack-dab in the middle of the timing band for a weekly cycle low.
There is always the possibility that the weekly cycle has not printed its low.
A break above 1597 forms a weekly swing low.
The possibility exists for gold to form a weekly swing low and then be rejected by the declining trend line, extending the current intermediate cycle.
Then a break of the declining trend line, along with the weekly swing low, will confirm a new intermediate cycle.
The yearly cycle took a bullish turn this week.

The current yearly cycle has been consolidating and this week pierced the lower trend line.
Then gold reversed off that trend line.
A monthly swing low and an upper trend line break will confirm the commencement of a new yearly cycle.
(The earliest a monthly swing low can form will be June)

The Miners

The Miners also may have bottomed last week.

The HUI looks to have printed a bottom on Wednesday and formed a swing low on Thursday.

Friday saw the HUI break above the accelerated (red) trend line.
So Friday was likely day 2 of the new daily cycle.
A break above the black trend line would certainly confirm a new daily cycle.

The weekly chart looks very interesting …

This was week 20 of the intermediate cycle.
Over the past 5 years, the Miners weekly cycle timing band was 14 – 20 weeks 73.33% of time (11/15).

So the Miners are right on the outer limits of the timing band and left behind a doji.

With a break above 407.29, the HUI prints a swing low.

A HUI break above the 450 level will form a swing low on the monthly chart.

And at month 11, there are pretty good odds that will mark the yearly low.

One more chart for the miners.

The Gold Miners Bullish Percent Index is beginning to show a bullish divergence.

4 responses to “The 5/18 Weekend Report – Part 2”

Jeff

May 19, 2012

Score!!! Another 100 on the blees

JL

May 20, 2012

LM,

It looks like the yearly cycle in HUI is a failed cycle. Could this mean that we are also in a new 3 year cycle for the HUI if there is such a thing?

1. likesmoneystudies
  
  May 20, 2012
  
  JL,
  
  Good observation,
  
  The HUi has a longer term, monthly cycle that averages 38 months from trough to trough.
  The current long-term monthly cycle shows a peak at month 35 and the HUI currently sits at month 43.
  The HUi is over due to print its three year low.
  
  The conclusion is that this new daily cycle is likely to usher in a new intermediate, new yearly and new 3 year cycle.
  
  The last 3 year cycle bottom sat at 150 and peaked just shy of 650.
  From the bottom to the peak took 35 months and saw over a 400% rally.
  
  The global liquidity and demonstrated reliance of printing suggest another such rally exists.
  
  1. JL
    
    May 20, 2012
    
    Thanks. Looking forward to the new 3 year cycle in miners 🙂

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