Jedi Mind Tricks …

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I believe for the past half year the dollar has been playing Jedi Mind Tricks with us.

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The dollar’s rally peaked in January and had an extended selloff until February 29 in what look every bit like an intermediate cycle low for the dollar.

The first daily cycle following the 2/29 low appears to be a normal first daily cycle, printing a higher high and a higher low. But the cycle was left translated, hmmmm.

The next daily cycle was also left translated.
It was during this second daily cycle that the dollar breached the intermediate cycle trend line to signal an intermediate cycle in decline.
This was confirmed when the dollar printed a failed daily cycle during that second daily cycle.

The failed daily cycle occurred during week 9, which should leave another 7 to 13 weeks of dollar weakness because the intermediate cycle low would not be due until then.

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Every since emerging from its 3 year low, the dollar has been doing its best to mask its cycles.

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I believe that the dollar printed the last intermediate cycle low at the end of October.
Since then, the dollar has been embedded in a large symmetrical triangle consolidation.

So instead of the first week of March making the last intermediate cycle low, it just marked week 18.
The first week in May that breached the lower trend line marks the intermediate cycle low.
And now the dollar just began week 2 of the new intermediate cycle.

The dollar has been up 10 straight days and will take a breather at some point.
Until the daily cycle rolls over, equities and precious metals are not likely to gain any traction.

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9 responses to “Jedi Mind Tricks …”

  1. jeff Avatar
    jeff

    First off, i dont know what i was thinking. I went to SMT first . Truely not clear thinking.
    The clear thinking is comeing from LM . So we are in a new intermediate cycle with the dollar?
    If the Dollar were to set a new ten year trend line with the same magnitude as the other trend line breaks, how long would that take to occure? can we make a guess, or is that thinking to much out of the box?
    looking back at your charts, I think it looks like they peaked in 7 or 8 months? Could this possibly be the begining of such a move. ( the only thing for sure is i am buying the dip in gold at 900 or 2,800) joke =)

  2. jeff Avatar
    jeff

    btw i am no Jedi trading warrior.

  3. likesmoneystudies Avatar
    likesmoneystudies

    There is still plenty of resistance for the dollar to work through.

    Also keep in mind that the dollar has been known to print a two week peak on the intermediate cycle before.

    One possible scenario is the dollar being turned back by the ten year trend line.

    1. jeff Avatar
      jeff

      Well i think that is the most reasonable expectation. I’ll get back in the box. =)

  4. Lynn A Avatar
    Lynn A

    You know this is exactly the same pattern as DUST on a 2 hour chart…Does this mean that this is a valid break out? Funny thing also, on Fidelity’s Directed Trading Level 3 screen there has been HUGE volume on DZZ–both bid and ask. I stopped myself from buying any because I thought that that many traders couldn’t be all correct…but Geez, I’m confused. None of the indicators I use are valid right now (or for the last several weeks for that matter).
    All indicators show a metals/stock rout.

  5. […] 179 Originally Posted by wingwalker What are you're thoughts or anybody's thoughts on calling this a new IT cycle for the $? Realize it would be extremely short but we've seen them before and price action is indicative of a new IT (3 white soldiers…). Myself, I'm leaning toward the new IT cycle and we are on wk 2. If it's a new IT – could definitely open an argument up that we could have one more DC in this gold IT. Someone agrees with you Wingwalker: Jedi Mind Tricks … | Cycle Trading […]

  6. Jack Dog Avatar
    Jack Dog

    Likesmoney,
    US Dollar is just burning holes through the ceiling left and right.
    If 1547.00 does not hold for gold, believe that it just adds to your theory and it comes to life. Also, think that once the Dollar 81.25 is breached that will have been the test break of the ten year down trend. We hopefully get a pop in PMs till the end of this DC. The end of this DC may just be the time to exit short term PMs holdings and wait to see what the next DC does. Again, the BLEES must stay HIGH through this cycle and the next IMHO for the PMs to have any chance.
    Just my thoughts, and scratching my …..
    Jack Dog

    1. jeff Avatar
      jeff

      jackdog, gary ( who is the only one that i have seen use blees) explains that 90 or better is the only relevent number that gives any indication. The big money layers in and out and the other numbers are meaningless and not tradeable information.

  7. jeff Avatar
    jeff

    or 10 or less for tops

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