Thursday was day 3 of the dollar’s daily cycle.
The dollar has been trying, unsuccessfully, to regain the intermediate cycle trend line.
It is noteworthy that all 3 days of the current daily cycle has been characterized by upper shadows on the dollar’s daily candles, which suggests bearishness for the dollar.
The previous 2 daily cycles were left translated, the most recent being a failed daily cycle.
As we have discussed, our expectation is for the current daily cycle to form as left translated, which means peaking before day 10.
Today, the dollar did ease the parameters from yesterday’s print for forming a swing high.
After retreating off the highs of the day, the dollar closed on the lower end of the day’s range.
If the dollar does not form a higher high on Friday, then all it needs to do is break below 79.09 to form a swing high.
Following two left translated daily cycles and already an intermediate cycle trend line break, any swing high is likely to follow through to sending the dollar into its primary decline into its daily cycle low.
So nothing happened to change my framework for the dollar.
The Miners are a different story.
My cycle count has the HUI on day 8 of the daily cycle.
Today damage was done today by breaking the daily cycle trend line.
And breaking below the previous low.
The timing band for a low is 12 – 17 days suggesting that the miners can trend lower for up to another 2 weeks.
There was one left translated daily cycle over the past year that did print a 10 day low.
So if the dollar were to form a swing high soon, it is not out of the question for the miners to respond bullishly and have a shortened daily cycle.
Today’s price action also caused the weekly chart to print a lower low.
The HUI is currently on week 18.
The earliest a weekly swing low can form is now next week.
There have been 15 weekly cycles since August 2007.
No weekly cycle has extended past 20 weeks over that time frame and only 4 stretched past 18 weeks.
If our dollar framework is accurate, then a push-lower in the miners this late in the intermediate cycle as we saw today brings one thing to mind …
Cycle Trading 
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