A Bump in the Road …

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I broke down the bearish case for the dollar in last night’s post.

We also acknowledged that the dollar has entered the timing band to print a daily cycle low with in the next week.

And then we look at the possibility of Monday being the cycle low.

Well Tuesday the dollar took the first step in that direction.

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Tuesday was day 19 or, because of the swing low, possibility day 1 for the dollar’s new daily cycle.

The next thing we will be watching for is a break of the declining cycle trend line.

That will confirm a new dollar daily cycle.

Since the weekly cycle has broke below the weekly cycle trend line, the weekly cycle is in decline and I expect that to influence the daily cycles.

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I would not be surprised to see a short rally that back tests the intermediate cycle trend line, then rolls over continuing the intermediate cycle decline.

In other words, I suspect this dollar rally is likely to be a bump in the road.

The Miners managed to close higher despite a stronger dollar.

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This is a good sign that the miners are (initially) ignoring the dollar’s attempt to rally.

Oil also seemed to be able to shrug of a stronger dollar.

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Maybe the Miners and Oil are sniffing out that any dollar rally will be short lived.

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7 responses to “A Bump in the Road …”

  1. jeff Avatar
    jeff

    thanks LM

    I am going to really try to get short the dollar. Between you and Doc, i should have a shot at this =)

  2. Jack Dog Avatar
    Jack Dog

    Likesmoney,

    A while back you mentioned timming was coming up for oil tickets, think it is now here. YES ? NO ?

    Jack Dog

    1. likesmoneystudies Avatar
      likesmoneystudies

      Jack Dog,
      Last night I posted the daily oil chart, here is the weekly oil chart.
      There is a weekly declining trend line break confirming a new weekly cycle for oil.
      Currently week 3.

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      B.T.W.

      The dollar broke above the declining trend line in the overnight in a clear and convincing manner.

      As stated in last night’s report, I anticipate a brief dollar rally before the dollar rolls over and continues its journey into an intermediate cycle low.

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      1. Jack Dog Avatar
        Jack Dog

        Likesmoney,

        Thanks for the response. Looking to add at the $ DC top.

        Jack Dog

  3. ALEX Avatar
    ALEX

    THX LM

    I was looking at the dollar before I read your report, and I had placed the 50sma and the 20sma on the daily. They are in the 79.36 to 79.40 area, which looks to be about where your trend line is. Also the reminder that OIL and MINERS ignored the dollar a bit gives confidence to where we are too…thanks for the reminders.

    ALEX

  4. likesmoneystudies Avatar
    likesmoneystudies

    Alex,

    Obviously the dollar did not read my report last night, at least not all of it.

    We are getting the anticipated bounce into a new daily cycle.

    The dollar sliced right through both the declining cycle trend line & the intermediate cycle trend line.

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    I see what you mean regarding the 50 sma & the 20 sma.

    They provided some support to the dollar on 4/12 & 4/13, now may provide resistance…

  5. ALEX Avatar
    ALEX

    LOL, Or maybe it DID read your report and wanted to show off a bit.

    I’ll be watching that 50 & 20sma area to see if it offers resistance , and on GOLD…they both fall at $1650, almost where Gold has dropped to overnight. Certainly feels like we’re close.

    Thx again-ALEX

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