Cycle Trading

SUMMARY

• Miners printed low on day 33
• Swing low formed within timing band
• Closed above 10 day moving average Monday
• Day 33 confirmed as DCL
• Downtrend remains intact

The Miners became stretched below the 10 day moving average into day 32 and began to consolidate, signaling downside exhaustion. Price then printed its lowest point on day 33, placing the cycle within its timing band for a daily cycle low. A swing low formed shortly after, but price remained capped beneath a declining 10 day moving average into the end of last week. From a cycle perspective, this kept the daily downtrend intact and suggested continued basing.

However, Monday marked the shift. The Miners closed above the 10 day moving average, satisfying the confirmation rule when combined with the prior swing low. As a result, day 33 is now labeled as the daily cycle low. From a timing standpoint, this places the market early in a new daily cycle. If the cycle is going to develop constructively, the 10 day moving average should begin to turn higher.

But the trend has not yet changed. The Miners remain in a daily downtrend and will need to close above the upper daily cycle band to confirm a broader shift. Until then, this move is best viewed as an early cycle advance within a developing structure.

If price builds on this move, then a stronger upside phase can unfold. If not, this keeps downside pressure intact.

CYCLE ALIGNMENT

Daily cycle turning up, but broader trend remains down — alignment is mixed.