Cycle Trading

Summary

• BTC entered its timing window for a daily cycle low
• Day 26 marked a potential cycle low with a swing low
• Price reclaimed the 50 day moving average
• BTC stalled at the 72,000 level and the 10 day moving average
• A close above both levels is needed to confirm continuation

BTC moved into its daily cycle low timing window late last week, reaching day 26 before forming a swing low on Monday. That response marked the first step in establishing a potential cycle low. Price also reclaimed the 50 day moving average — an encouraging development that suggests the decline may be losing momentum.

However, the next test came quickly. BTC rallied into the 72,000 resistance level while also running into the declining 10 day moving average on Monday. This confluence of resistance is important. When price approaches a key level alongside a declining short-term average, it often acts as a barrier until proven otherwise.

What is clear is that BTC is attempting to turn — but has not yet confirmed it. From a cycle perspective, the setup is constructive. The timing window is open, and a swing low is in place. But confirmation requires follow-through. A close above both the 10 day moving average and the 72,000 resistance level will be needed to confirm that a daily cycle low is in place. That signal would indicate continuation of the daily uptrend. Until then, BTC remains in consolidation, with resistance still defining the near-term trend.

Cycle Alignment

The daily cycle is attempting to turn within a broader uptrend, with price testing key resistance.