Cycle Trading

Summary

• Copper formed a swing high and turned lower
• Price broke below the prior daily cycle low
• The move confirms a failed daily cycle
• Downtrend is extending with momentum
• A swing low with a close above the 10 day moving average is needed

Copper turned lower early in the week, forming a swing high before delivering steady bearish follow-through into the close. The key development came with the break below the prior daily cycle low — confirming a failed daily cycle. From a daily cycle perspective, this is an important shift. Instead of resetting higher, the cycle failed, signaling that downside pressure remains dominant. This keeps the market in a clear daily downtrend.

What is clear is that price is now stretched below the 10 day moving average. In most cases, this type of extension leads to a pause or consolidation phase, allowing the moving average time to catch up and setting the stage for a potential swing low. At this stage, the focus is on structure, not prediction. A swing low followed by a close above the 10 day moving average will be needed to signal that a daily cycle low is in place. Until that signal occurs, the path of least resistance remains lower.

Cycle Alignment

The daily cycle is in a confirmed downtrend, with downside pressure dominating in the near term.