Cycle Trading

Summary

• Dollar broke below the 10 day moving average to signal a cycle decline
• Day 37 places it deep in the timing band for a daily cycle low
• Price stabilized with a late-week rally
• Trend remains constructive if support holds
• A break above 100.31 with a close above the 10 day moving average is needed

The dollar moved into a daily cycle decline after breaking below the 10 day moving average midweek, pushing the cycle into its late-stage timing window. At day 37, the dollar is now deep in the timing band for a daily cycle low — a point where declines typically begin to exhaust. Friday’s rally suggests selling pressure may already be fading.

What is clear is that the broader trend remains intact. The pullback appears corrective unless the dollar begins to break down further. This places the market at a decision point. If the dollar is forming a higher low, it should begin to turn higher soon.

A swing low with a close above the 10 day moving average will be needed to confirm a daily cycle low. A break above 100.31 will establish that signal and indicate continuation of the uptrend. Until then, the cycle remains vulnerable to further consolidation

Cycle Alignment

Daily cycle is declining into a potential low while higher timeframes are attempting to turn higher.