Summary
• BTC printed its lowest point on day 30 following the day 26 peak.
• Day 30 falls directly in the timing band for a Daily Cycle Low (DCL).
• BTC formed a swing low and closed above the 10 day moving average on Monday.
• BTC is now rallying out of its DCL but approaching resistance at the declining 50 day MA.
• A sustained advance will likely require BTC to reclaim the 50 day moving average.
BTC printed its lowest point on day 30 following the day 26 peak. That places BTC directly in its timing band for a Daily Cycle Low (DCL). BTC formed a swing low and closed above the 10 day moving average on Monday, allowing us to label day 30 as the DCL.
BTC should now begin to turn the 10 day moving average higher as it rallies out of this cycle low. However, BTC is quickly approaching resistance at the declining 50 day moving average.
The decline into the day 30 DCL caused the 50 day moving average to decline sharply. Because of this, BTC may need to consolidate as the market allows the 50 day MA time to flatten out before it can turn higher. Until that occurs, it will likely be difficult for BTC to establish a sustained trending move. From a trend perspective, BTC remains in a daily downtrend. BTC will remain in its daily downtrend unless it closes above the upper daily cycle band.
Key Levels to Watch
- Resistance — 50 day moving average
- Support — Day 30 Daily Cycle Low
- Cycle Signal — A continued advance above the 10 day MA would confirm strength out of the Daily Cycle Low.
Cycle Context
Markets often rally out of a Daily Cycle Low before encountering resistance from declining moving averages. If BTC consolidates near the 50 day MA and eventually breaks above it, that would significantly improve the technical outlook.
Cycle Trading 
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