Cycle Trading

Summary

• BTC printed its lowest point on day 18, early in its timing band for a daily cycle low (DCL).
• The previous cycle stretched to 50 days, increasing the odds of a shortened cycle this time.
• A swing low and close above the 10 day moving average confirms day 18 as the DCL.
• Despite the bounce, BTC remains in a daily downtrend until it closes above the upper daily cycle band.

Bitcoin printed its lowest point on Tuesday, day 18 of its daily cycle, placing the move in the early portion of its timing band for a daily cycle low.

The previous daily cycle stretched to 50 days — extended by historical standards — so it would be normal to now see a shortened cycle form. A shorter 18-day cycle helps balance the larger cycle structure and resets timing expectations moving forward.

On Wednesday, BTC formed a swing low and closed back above the 10 day moving average. That confirmation allows us to label day 18 as the daily cycle low.

However, context matters. The drop into the February DCL caused the 10 day moving average to turn sharply lower. Because of that steep decline, BTC may still need additional consolidation time to allow the 10 day moving average to flatten before a sustained advance can begin. Early cycle rallies often stall when the short-term moving averages are still pointing decisively downward.

Importantly, BTC remains in a daily downtrend. The new cycle has begun, but trend confirmation has not yet occurred. Bitcoin will remain in its daily downtrend unless it closes back above the upper daily cycle band. In other words, the cycle has reset — but the trend has not yet shifted.

Takeaway

Bitcoin has likely formed an early daily cycle low on day 18, but the broader daily downtrend remains intact. Additional consolidation may be needed before momentum can meaningfully turn higher, and a close above the upper daily cycle band is required to confirm a trend shift.