Cycle Trading

Summary

• Daily Trend: Downtrend developing
• Cycle Position: Early daily cycle phase
• Key Level: Trading below the 10 day moving average
• Implication: Continued weakness supports stocks and metals

The Dollar is approaching a short-term decision point as it continues to trade below the declining 10 day moving average.

After forming a recent daily cycle low, the Dollar has failed to generate meaningful upside follow-through. Price has remained contained beneath the 10 day moving average, indicating that sellers remain in control and that a daily downtrend is beginning to take shape.

This developing weakness is an important cross-market signal. A sustained move lower in the Dollar would continue to provide a supportive backdrop for risk assets, including stocks and precious metals. However, if the Dollar can reclaim the 10 day moving average, it would signal that downside momentum is fading and shift the near-term risk back toward a stronger Dollar environment.

For now, the Dollar is at an inflection point, with the 10 day moving average serving as the key level that will likely determine the next directional move.

Takeaway

The Dollar is weakening but not yet broken — continued downside would support risk assets, while a recovery back above the 10 day moving average would signal that the decline is failing.