Cycle Trading

Summary

• Cycle Timing: Day 38 printed Tuesday, inside the DCL timing band
• Structure: Swing low formed with reclaim of key moving averages
• Trend: Daily trend remains down for now
• Trigger: Close above the upper daily cycle band flips trend to up

Daily Structure

Stocks printed their lowest point on Tuesday, day 38, placing price firmly inside the timing band for a daily cycle low. A swing low developed at that level.

On Wednesday, stocks closed back above the 50 day moving average, signaling downside exhaustion. Monday’s close above the 10 day moving average confirmed day 38 as the daily cycle low.

Trend & Cycle Context

Despite confirmation of the daily cycle low, stocks remain in a daily downtrend. The next inflection point is clearly defined. A close above the upper daily cycle band will end the daily downtrend and initiate a new daily uptrend. Until then, this remains a countertrend recovery within a declining daily structure.

Takeaway

Day 38 marked the daily cycle low. The daily trend remains down, but a close above the upper daily cycle band would confirm a full trend reversal and shift the cycle into expansion.