Cycle Trading

Summary

• Stocks printed a low on day 33, inside the DCL timing band
• Two of three DCL criteria have been met
• Price held above the 10 day moving average, keeping the daily uptrend intact
• Daily cycle status remains unresolved
• A breakout above 7000 would confirm trend continuation and trigger a cycle band buy signal

Daily Cycle Status Unclear — Resistance at 7000 Holds

Stocks formed a swing low on Thursday but remained contained by the 7000 resistance level, leaving the status of the daily cycle unclear.

Stocks printed their lowest point on Thursday, day 33, placing them firmly within their timing band for a daily cycle low (DCL). While stocks have satisfied two of the three criteria required to confirm a DCL —

• Timing band

• Trend line break

• —they did not close below the 10 day moving average and turn it lower, which would normally be required to complete the daily cycle decline.

Instead, stocks are currently in a daily uptrend and formed a swing low above the 10 day moving average. This keeps the daily uptrend intact despite the late-cycle timing.

A bullish breakout above the 7000 resistance level would indicate a continuation of the daily uptrend and signal a cycle band buy signal.