Cycle Trading

Summary

• BTC printed a low on day 21, early for a typical DCL.
• Failure to turn the 10 day MA lower prevented confirmation of a daily cycle decline.
• BTC formed a swing low and is consolidating between the 10 day MA and 50 day MA.
• A close below the 50 day MA would continue the daily cycle decline.
• BTC remains in a daily uptrend.
• A close above the 10 day MA would signal a cycle band buy and confirm day 21 as an early DCL.

BTC printed its lowest point on day 21, which is early to expect a daily cycle low (DCL). In order to complete the daily cycle decline, BTC should have turned the 10 day MA lower — which has not occurred.

Instead, BTC formed a swing low on Friday and has since entered a consolidation phase between the rising 10 day MA and the 50 day MA. This compression reflects a market that is working through cycle resolution rather than accelerating in either direction.

A close below the 50 day MA would confirm continuation of the daily cycle decline. However, BTC is currently in a daily uptrend, and that uptrend remains intact unless price loses key support.

A close back above the 10 day MA would indicate continuation of the daily uptrend and trigger a cycle band buy signal. In that scenario, day 21 would be labeled as an early DCL, shifting the near-term bias back to the upside.