Cycle Trading

Summary

• BTC printed its lowest point on Thursday, day 26
• Swing low confirmed and close above 10 day MA signals DCL
• BTC remains in daily downtrend until closing above upper cycle band
• Price approaching declining 50 day MA resistance
• Expect consolidation to allow 50 day MA to flatten
• No sustainable bullish trend until price closes above 50 day MA

BTC printed its lowest point on Thursday, day 26. That places the low in the early portion of its timing band for a DCL. BTC then closed above the 10 day MA and formed a swing low, prompting us to label day 26 as the DCL. BTC is currently in a daily downtrend. BTC will remain in its daily downtrend unless it closes back above the upper daily cycle band. BTC is also approaching the declining 50 day MA.

The longer term chart shows that the 50 day MA is declining sharply. BTC will likely run into resistance and will need to consolidate in order to allow the 50 day MAtime to flatten out before it can begin moving higher. No trending move can be sustained until BTC can close above the 50 day MA.