The dollar formed a swing high on Tuesday and broke down beneath the converging 200 day moving average and 10 day moving average. That weakness continued on Wednesday. Then on Friday, the dollar was rejected once again by both the 10 day MA and 200 day MA, reinforcing that the daily cycle decline is now in motion.
The next level to watch is the rising 50 day MA, which may provide temporary support and help set up a swing low. However, cycle structure is already skewing bearish. The peak on day 5 locked in a left-translated daily cycle, which carries historically bearish implications.
The dollar technically remains in a daily uptrend, but that status is now vulnerable. A close below the lower daily cycle band would end its uptrend and begin a daily downtrend. And a break below the day 20 low of 98.99 would officially form a failed daily cycle — opening the door to further downside.
Cycle Trading 
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