Cycle Trading

Stocks formed a swing low on Wednesday, setting up the potential for day 27 to mark the daily cycle low (DCL). But on Thursday, the market delivered a bearish surprise.

Stocks initially broke above both the 50 day moving average and the 10 day moving average on Thursday. At that point, it appeared that day 27 was the DCL. However, stocks were rejected by the converging 50 day moving average and 10 day moving average and went on to close 1.56% lower on the day. That rejection also drove stocks below the previous DCL. Breaking below the previous DCL forms a failed daily cycle and confirms the intermediate cycle decline.

Despite that bearish breakdown, stocks did not deliver further downside follow-through on Friday. Stocks initially broke lower early in the session to print a lower low. However, stocks then rallied and went on to close higher on the day. Friday was day 30, placing stocks in their timing band for a DCL. A swing low with a close back above the 10 day moving average will signal a new daily cycle. A break above 6660.05 will form that swing low.

Stocks are currently in a daily downtrend. They will remain in their daily downtrend unless they can close back above the upper daily cycle band.

The breakdown below the prior DCL confirms that the intermediate cycle decline is underway — but the magnitude and structure of this decline carry important implications for where stocks are headed into December and early 2026.
This week I am offering a Special Report: Intermediate Expectations. In the Special Report I’ll examine:

• How deep this intermediate decline is likely to run,
• Whether the pending DCL is also setting the intermediate cycle low (ICL), and
• What the historical timing suggests for the next major rally phase.

With Black Friday approaching, I’ll be offering a limited-time subscription special for new members. Get the Special Report, Intermediate Expectations and an extra two months on the 6 month subscription – 8 months for $100 — click here.

Here is what is included in the Weekend Report Subscription

1) The Weekend Report, which is posted usually Saturday mornings. It discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles – and it includes the Likesmoney Combination Cycle Tracker & Trend Tracker.

2) The Mid-Week Update. Posted on Wednesdays is a review of the daily charts for the above mentioned asset classes.

3) The Weekend Updates, posted on Sundays, looks at the daily & weekly charts of the BTC, Dax, Copper, Natgas & XLE.

4) Weekly Update of the Bullish Percentile Bingo.

5) Frequent updates of my proprietary Buy/Sell Indicator.

The goal of the Weekend Report is to develop an on-going framework of expectations using cycle analysis. Click here for the Special Report and Black Friday offer.