Cycle Trading

BTC is approaching decision time.

Bitcoin has been trading within a multi-year consolidation pattern and is now approaching the apex of that structure. These types of long consolidations often precede a significant directional move, and BTC appears to be getting closer to that point.

BTC printed its lowest point on day 22, which places it in the early part of its timing band for a Daily Cycle Low (DCL). Following that low, BTC managed to close above both the 10 day MA and the 200 day MA, which signals day 22 as a potential early DCL.

However, while these are encouraging signs, it’s important to remember that BTC remains in a daily downtrend. For this early DCL to gain confirmation, we need to see a close above the 50 day MA. That would signal that a new daily cycle is beginning and that momentum is shifting back to the upside.

Until that happens, caution is warranted. A rejection at the 50 day MA could indicate that the current downtrend remains in control and that BTC may continue consolidating into the apex of its larger pattern before breaking decisively one way or the other.