Bitcoin dropped more than 16% over the past two weeks, closing below the 200 day moving average on Friday. That marked a significant shakeout, and Friday landed on day 22 — placing BTC in the early part of its timing band for a daily cycle low (DCL).
Over the weekend, BTC formed a swing low and closed back above the 200 day MA on Sunday, signaling that day 22 may have hosted the DCL. On Monday, Bitcoin continued higher and is now in the process of breaking above the 10 day MA.
For confirmation, I’ll be looking for BTC to close above both the 10 day and 50 day moving averages. That would firmly establish day 22 as the DCL and signal that a new daily cycle is beginning.
For now, BTC remains in a daily downtrend. Bitcoin will stay in its daily downtrend unless it can close above the upper daily cycle band — which would mark a shift back to bullish momentum.
The recent rebound off the 200 day MA is encouraging, but BTC still has work to do to prove that a sustainable uptrend is underway. A decisive close above the 50 day MA would be the first real sign that buyers are regaining control.
Cycle Trading 
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