Cycle Trading

The dollar printed its lowest point on Tuesday. 

We labeled day 20 as the daily cycle low, which would make Tuesday, day 11 of the new daily cycle.  However, with the dollar forming a marginal lower low on the weekly chart, this week has me thinking that day 20 was not the DCL.  Which would make Tuesday – day 31, placing the dollar and its timing band for a daily cycle low.   The dollar formed a swing low on Thursday.  A close above the 10 day moving average will have us label day 31 as the DCL.  What is clear is that the dollar is still in a daily downtrend the dollar will remain and it’s daily downtrend unless it closes above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks formed a swing low on Friday.  Stocks printed their lowest point on Thursday, day 41, placing them in their timing band for a daily cycle low. Friday’s swing low signals the new daily cycle. We will need to see a close above the 10 day MA in order to label day 41 as the DCL.  Stocks are currently in a daily downtrend.  Stocks will remain in their daily downtrend unless they close above the upper daily cycle band.  

This drop into the day 41 low formed a monthly swing high to signal the yearly cycle decline. A larger degree multi year cycle decline is looming in front of us — which I discussed in the Weekend Report.


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