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Cycle Trading

Is The Dollar Toast?

The initial reaction to the 50 basis point rate cut saw the dollar rally.

The dollar found support at the 100.25 level and formed a bullish reversal. Wednesday was day 16, which is early to expect a DCL to form.

But the intermediate cycle is at 38 weeks, placing the dollar deep in its timing band for its ICL to form. So it is possible to see a shortened daily cycle here.

However …

Overnight we can see that the dollar is in the process of being rejected by the declining 10 day MA. A close below the support level could trigger a bloodbath phase for the dollar.

Which precious metals seem to be sniffing out.

3 responses to “Is The Dollar Toast?”

  1. Alexandru Avatar
    Alexandru

    Is not it more likely that last ICL was in June for the dollar, on week 23, so that we are now merely on week 15 — hence minimum 5 weeks still to go into the next ICL of the dollar?

    Reply
    1. likesmoneystudies Avatar
      likesmoneystudies

      The June DCL did satisfy some of the parameters for an ICL
      Timing band — week 23
      Closed below the 10 week MA
      But it did not turn the 10 week MA lower, which is why I did not label it as the ICL.
      Regardless, the dollar has been coiling along support from the rising 200 week MA
      And the dollar is in the process or forming a weekly bullish reversal.
      Assuming that June was the ICL – support from the rising 200 week MA has good odds of triggering an early ICL here.
      LM

      Reply
      1. Alexandru Avatar
        Alexandru

        thank you!

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