Cycle Trading

The Dollar

The dollar continues to crawl along the 200 day MA.

The dollar is currently in a daily uptrend. If the dollar forms a swing low above the 200 day MA that will indicate a continuation of its daily uptrend and signal a cycle band buy signal.  A break above 103.61 will form a swing low.  But a rejection by the 200 day MA followed by a close below the 50 day MA will signal the daily cycle decline. 

Stocks

Stocks printed a new daily cycle high on Friday. The new high on day 14 begins to shift the odds toward a right translated daily cycle formation.

Stocks are stretched above the 10 day MA.  Stocks have begun to consolidate which will help to allow the 10 day MA to catch up to price.  Stocks currently are in a daily uptrend.  A bullish break out of consolidation will indicate a continuation of the their daily uptrend unless and signal a cycle band buy signal. But a bearish break out of consolidation will signal the daily cycle decline. 

A possible catalyst for a breakout will be Wednesday’s FOMC meeting.

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