Cycle Trading

The Dollar

The dollar ran into resistance at the declining 200 day MA on Tuesday.  

That was the first test of the 200 day MA since the dollar lost it back in late 2022.

The dollar managed to close above the 200 day MA on Friday. The dollar is currently in a daily uptrend.  Closing above the 200 day MA indicates a continuation of the daily uptrend and signals a cycle band buy signal. 

Stocks

Both the Nasdaq and the S&P broke below their June DCL’s on Friday. 

Breaking below the previous DCL forms a failed daily cycle and confirms the intermediate cycle decline.  Friday was day 38, placing stocks deep in their timing band for a daily cycle low.  Stocks have “done enough” to satisfy the criteria for a DCL.  A swing low and close above the breakdown level will signal the new daily cycle.  

The question is did stocks “do enough” for an ICL and did stocks “do enough” for the YCL. This is something that I discuss in detail in the Weekend Report.