Cycle Trading

The Dollar

The dollar printed its lowest point on day 42, and has been consolidating since.

A break below the day 42 low of 101.27 will extend its daily cycle decline. However the dollar rallied on Thursday and closed higher again on Friday. A close above the 10 day MA would indicate that day 42 was the DCL. Then a break above 102.65 would form a swing low and we would then label day 42 as the DCL. The dollar is currently in a daily downtrend. The dollar will remain in its daily downtrend unless it closes above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks

Stocks delivered a bullish change in behavior this week.

Stocks had consistently been rejected by the 200 day MA since April. Stocks closed above the 200 last Friday. Stocks delivered any bullish follow through on Monday, Thursday and Friday. A break above the previous daily cycle high of 4100.96 will form a higher higher.  Stocks have been contained by the declining 200 day MA since April. A break above 4100.96 will be the first higher high that formed above the 200 MA since April.

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