Cycle Trading

We discussed last week that the Miners need to close above the 200 day MA to signal that day 31 was the DCL.

The Miners managed to do so on Wednesday and Friday of last week. Even though the Miners delivered some bullish follow through on Tuesday, they are still caught in consolidation. The Miners really need to break free of consolidation. in order for a trending move to develop. Until they break free — the 200 day MA can be used as the stop.

Gold, silver, platinum and copper all seem to have a lid on them, as well. What may be keeping a lid on them is the pending rally on the dollar.

The dollar printed its lowest point on week 18. That places the dollar in its timing band for an ICL. A break above 105.24 will form a weekly swing low to signal the new intermediate cycle. Recovery of the 50 week MA will be a good signal that week 18 was the ICL.  The dollar is currently in a weekly downtrend. The dollar will remain in its weekly downtrend unless it closes back above the upper weekly cycle band.