Cycle Trading

The Dollar

The dollar closed below the 10 day MA on Monday then continued lower through Friday.

Friday was day 18 for the daily dollar cycle, which places the dollar in the early part of its timing band for a DCL. The dollar really needs to turn the 10 day MA lower to signal the daily cycle decline. However, the dollar is currently in a daily uptrend. If the dollar forms a swing low above the lower daily cycle band then it will remain in its daily uptrend and signal a cycle band buy signal — in which we would label day 18 as a half cycle low. A break above 107.25 will form a daily swing low.

Stocks

Stocks closed above the declining trend line on Tuesday, then continued higher through Friday.

The new high on day 23 assures us of a right translated daily cycle.  Stocks are a bit stretched above the 10 day MA and may crawl along the 50 day MA to allow the 10 day MA to catch up to price.  However, a close below the converging 10 day MA and 50 day MA would signal the daily cycle decline.  Stocks are currently in a daily uptrend.  They will remain in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band. 

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