Cycle Trading

Stocks formed a swing low on Tuesday.

Stocks printed their lowest point on Friday, day 19, which is very early for a DCL. But with the previous daily cycle being stretched at 60 days, a shortened daily cycle would help to balance out the cycle counts.  The weekly cycle is also stretched, which increases the odds for an early DCL. Still, we will need to see a close above the declining 10 day MA, along with some bullish follow through to be assured that day 19 hosted an early DCL.

If Friday was the DCL, then a Tuesday entry provides the least risk of loss if stopped out. Waiting for more confirmation, such as recovering the 3943.42 break down level or a close above the 10 day MA provides more assurance that the DCL is set at the cost of a greater loss if stopped out at Friday’s low.