Cycle Trading

The Dollar

The dollar printed its lowest point on day 22, which is a bit early for a DCL.

While the dollar formed a swing low and closed above the 10 day MA on Monday, it did not deliver any bullish follow through. Then the dollar lost the 10 day MA on Friday to signal a continuation of the daily cycle decline. A break below the previous DCL of 95.54 will form a failed daily cycle. he dollar currently is in a daily uptrend.  The dollar will remain in its daily uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band. 

Stocks

Stocks have been consolidating below the 4800 resistance level until Wednesday.

Stocks printed a huge bearish candle on Wednesday to signal the daily cycle decline. Stocks printed their lowest point on Friday, day 23, which is a bit early to expect a DCL. So any bounce off the 50 day MA should be contained by the 10 day MA so stocks can complete their daily cycle decline. 

However, stocks are currently in a daily uptrend. If stocks form a swing low and close back above the 10 day MA then that would indicate a continuation of the daily uptrend and trigger a cycle band buy signal. Under this scenario, we would label day 23 as an early DCL. 

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