Cycle Trading

The Dollar

The dollar remains contained by the declining 10 day MA.

The dollar printed its lowest point on Friday, day 16. Which is early to expect a DCL. However there are bullish divergences developing on the oscillators, which often precede a cycle low. And Friday’s bullish candle caused the 10 day MA to begin to flatten out. A swing low and a break above the declining trend line will signal a new daily cycle. The dollar is in a daily downtrend. The dollar will remain in its daily downtrend unless it can close back above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks

Stocks lost the 10 day MA on Monday then backtested the 50 day MA on Wednesday, forming a double bottom.

Stocks formed a swing low on Thursday. Stocks went on to close a full candle body above the 10 day MA on Friday to indicate that day 48 was the DCL. Stocks are in a daily uptrend. Closing above the upper daily cycle band indicates that stocks will remain in their daily uptrend. A close above the 4200 resistance level should lead to a trending move.

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