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Cycle Trading

The First Domino …

The dollar broke lower on Monday and again on Tuesday, causing the first domino to fall.

The dollar closed below both the 10 day MA and the 50 day MA on Tuesday. It also broke below below the previous daily cycle low on Tuesday to form failed daily cycle. A failed daily cycle signals the intermediate cycle decline. 

This week I am posting a special report: The Dollar Domino Effect. The report will look at how a failed daily dollar cycle sets in motion consequences in the weekly cycle, yearly cycle, 3 year cycle, and 15 year super cycle.

The Special Report, The Dollar Domino Effect along with a 6 week Trial Subscription is available for $15.


Your 6 week trial subscription you will give you full access to the premium site which includes:

1) The Weekend Report, which is posted usually Saturday mornings. It discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles – Which includes the Likesmoney Cycle Tracker.

2) The Mid-Week Update. Posted on Wednesday’s is a review of the daily charts for the above mentioned asset classes.

3)The Weekend Updates take a look of the daily & weekly charts of GBTC, DAX, GYX, NATGAS & XLE.

4) Weekly Update of the Bullish Percentile Bingo

5) Frequent updates of my proprietary FAS Buy/Sell Indicator

The goal of the Weekend Report is to develop an on-going framework of expectations using cycle analysis.

>>> For the special report: The Dollar Domino Effect and 6 week trial subscription click here.

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6 responses to “The First Domino …”

  1. Alex Avatar
    Alex

    Why do you consider, pls, DCL on Oct-9 ?! 10dma barely moved upwards on Oct-15 and on many prior occasions you were skittish calling a DCL specifically because of a shallow 10dma increase.
    The point is that we may still be in an extended DC, on day 37 or, who knows, maybe on day 2 of the new DC if DCL was on this Wednesday.
    Why do you think this time the declining 10dma is not an issue?

    Reply
    1. Alex Avatar
      Alex

      …many a time right before a FOMC, especially before both a FOMC and a presidential election, $ improves significantly and gold find resistance at 50dma (just as now) so that it is quite likely that Friday was day 2 for dxy afer a 35-day DC.

      Reply
  2. likesmoneystudies Avatar
    likesmoneystudies

    Alex,

    You are correct that the 10 DMA barely turned upward and on many prior occasions I was skittish calling a DCL. On day 27 the dollar closed below both the 50 day MA and the lower daily cycle band – both very reliable indicators of the daily cycle decline. Then on day 4 (10/15) the dollar closed above the declining trend line and the 10 day MA, having already regained the 50 day MA. Those are very convincing indicators of a new daily cycle.

    I suspect that gravitational pull of the pending 15 super cycle low has gained control of the dollar (along with the Fed) and managed to abort the dollar rally on day 4. Having a daily cycle peak on day 4 along with the intermediate cycle peaking on week 3 is characteristic of a dollar super cycle decline.

    Reply
    1. Alex Avatar
      Alex

      Thank you! I am grateful for all your work.

      Reply
      1. likesmoneystudies Avatar
        likesmoneystudies

        As I am grateful for your thoughtful contributions ;0)

  3. Alex Avatar
    Alex

    🙂
    3 observations:
    — daily ADX(14) of NZDUSD is under 11 omening an incoming strong trend into elections and fomc; with TSI 7,4,7 at +33 it is fathomable that the trend will come downwards, hence incoming strong appreciation of $ (at least against kiwi);
    — wkly chart and COT rep of Copper are extremely bearish (double negative divergences)
    — SPX has set 10dma as resistance.
    All these suggest strong risk-off days coming, with $ king!

    NB: Since copper is on the top week, its bottom (ICL) is ripe to come on elections week or early in the week of Nov 9 –> bottom for SPX maybe too (PM may bottom earlier on Nov 2-3).

    Reply

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