Cycle Trading

The dollar has not delivered final confirmation that day 40 was the DCL. The dollar printed its lowest point on day 40, placing it deep in its timing band for a daily cycle low. The dollar did form a swing low and close above the 10 day MA to signal the new daily cycle. But the dollar did not yet manage to turn the 10 day MA higher. And the dollar ended up losing the 10 day MA to close out the week.

The dollar should rally enough to break above the declining trend line and turn the 10 day MA higher as it rallies out of its DCL. However, a break below the day 40 low of 92.50 will extend the daily cycle decline. Currently, the dollar is in a daily downtrend. It will remain in in its daily downtrend unless it closes above the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks

Friday was day 43 for the daily equity cycle, placing stocks deep in their timing band for a daily cycle low.

Since breaking above the day 27 high, stocks have been going pretty much straight up and appear to be rallying into their intermediate cycle peak. A swing high and close below the accelerated (dashed) trend line will signal the daily cycle decline. A break below 3363.35 forms a daily swing high. Stocks continue to close above the upper daily cycle band to indicate a daily uptrend. Stocks remain in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

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