The Dollar

The dollar formed a swing high on Monday then delivered bearish follow through by closing below the 10 day MA on Tuesday.
The dollar then rallied on Wednesday, closing back above the 10 day MA and continued higher into the close on Friday. This allows us to construct the daily cycle trend line. A break below this trend line will signal the daily cycle decline. The dollar currently in a daily downtrend. The dollar will remain in its daily downtrend unless it closes back above the upper daily cycle band.
The rally out of the day 21 low did not manage to turn the 10 day MA higher.
While stocks closed higher on Monday and Tuesday, they lost the 10 day MA on Wednesday. Thursday’s bullish reversal off of support from the 200 day MA looked, in real time, as if the Fed managed to to save the market from further decline. Then stocks broke lower on Friday, closing below the 200 day MA. Friday was day 30, which places stocks in the early part of its timing band for a daily cycle low. Stocks should go on to break below the day 21 low of 2965.66 in order to form its daily cycle low. Currently, stocks are in a daily uptrend. But a close below the lower daily cycle band will end the daily uptrend and begin a daily downtrend.
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