Cycle Trading

Stocks appear to be developing a false weekly breakout.

Stocks have been contained by resistance at the 3330 over the past several weeks. This week stocks broke cleanly above the 3330 level. But already appear to be developing an upper shadow on the weekly candle. This is week 19 for the intermediate equity cycle, placing stocks in their timing band for an intermediate cycle low. There are bearish divergences developing on the weekly oscillators that often accompany a cycle top. A close below the 3330 level would form a bearish weekly reversal which would indicate the intermediate cycle decline.

And as we discussed on Monday, there is a potential Black Swan Event developing in China due to Coronavirus. And the economic impact of the Coronavirus can help to intensify the pending intermediate cycle decline.