Cycle Trading

The Dollar

The dollar printed a bearish reversal on Friday.

The big picture is that the dollar is very late in its timing band for a yearly cycle decline and formed a bearish weekly reversal on week 5 to set up a potential left translated weekly cycle formation. A left translated daily cycle formation would align with the dollar declining into an intermediate cycle low. The bearish reversal on day 8 sets the dollar up for a potential left translated daily cycle formation. Still, the dollar is in a daily uptrend. The dollar will remain in its daily uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks

Stocks could not break above the 50 day MA and broke lower to back test the day 44 low.

Stocks backtested the day 44 low on Thursday. Stocks went on to form a swing low and closed above the 10 day MA on Friday. Therefore we will label day 44 as the daily cycle low, making Friday day 9 for the new daily cycle. Stocks have begun to close below the lower daily cycle band indicating a daily downtrend. Stocks will remain in their daily downtrend unless they can close back above the upper daily cycle band. And a daily downtrend is associated with being in an intermediate cycle decline.

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