Cycle Trading

The Dollar

The dollar printed its lowest point on Tuesday, day 29, placing it in its timing band for daily cycle low.

The dollar did break below the daily cycle trend line on Tuesday. So it is possible that Tuesday is the daily cycle low. While a swing low formed on Thursday, the dollar appears to be forming a bearish flag. At this point we will use a close back above the 10 day MA to label day 29 as the DCL. The dollar is currently in a daily uptrend. It will remain in its daily uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks

Stocks printed their lowest point on Monday, day 44, to place them deep in their timing band for a daily cycle low.

Stocks did form a swing low on Thursday but remained contained by the convergence of the 10 day MA and the 50 day MA on Friday. We will need to see a close above those two moving averages for confirmation of a new daily cycle. Stocks have begun to close below the lower daily cycle band this week. That ended the daily uptrend and begins a daily downtrend. And daily downtrends are associated with intermediate cycle declines.

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