Cycle Trading

The Dollar

The dollar is caught between the 50 day MA and the 200 day MA which is obscuring our cycle counts.

Day 9 remains as the daily cycle peak. A peak on day 9 can still result in a left translated daily cycle formation. A left translated daily cycle formation would align with the dollar being in an intermediate cycle decline.

The decline into the DCL has twice been halted by the 200 day MA. The dollar printed its lowest point on Thursday, day 16, which is early to expect a DCL. But with the manipulation of the currencies by central banks it is possible that Friday’s swing low did form the DCL.

Our expectation is to see a left translated, failed daily cycle. But a break above the declining trend line would have us label day 16 as the daily cycle low. The dollar did begin a new daily uptrend. A close back above the upper daily cycle band would affirm the daily uptrend and indicate that the June daily cycle low was also an intermediate cycle low.

Stocks

The daily equity cycle peaked on Monday, day 29, formed a swing high on Tuesday and closed below the 10 day MA on Wednesday to signal the daily cycle decline.

The high on day 29 locks in a right translated daily cycle formation. Stocks printed their lowest point on Thursday, day 32. That places stocks in the early part of its timing band for a daily cycle low. While stocks formed a swing low on Friday, the bearish close favors a continuation of the daily cycle decline. Stocks are currently in a strong daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

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