Cycle Trading

The dollar formed a daily swing high on Wednesday.

Wednesday’s swing high caused the dollar to close convincingly below the 50 day MA to signal the daily cycle decline. The dollar delivered more bearish follow though on Friday by closing below the 10 day MA. The peak on day 9 can still result in a left translated weekly cycle formation, which aligns with the dollar being in an intermediate cycle decline. However, the dollar has begun a new daily uptrend. A close below the lower daily cycle band would end the daily uptrend and renew the daily downtrend.

Stocks

Stocks printed a new daily cycle high on Friday.

The new high on Friday, day 28, locks in a right translated daily cycle formation. There are bearish divergences developing on the oscillators that signal that cycle top is near. At 28 days, stocks are 2 days shy of their timing band for a daily cycle low. A swing high accompanied by a convincing close below the daly cycle trend line will confirm the daily cycle decline. Stocks are currently in a strong daily uptrend. Stocks will remain in their daily uptrend unless they close below the lower daily cycle band.

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