Cycle Trading





The Dollar

Friday was day 31, placing the dollar in its timing band for a daily cycle decline.





The dollar peaked on day 26, formed a swing high and closed below the 10 day MA to signal the daily cycle decline. The dollar did break below the daily cycle trend line on Wednesday, as it printed a bullish reversal. But since the dollar did not turn the 10 day MA lower, I believe that the correct count is Friday being day 31. The dollar should break below the day 29 low in order to complete its daily cycle decline.




Stocks


The daily equity cycle peaked on day 37. Then stocks closed below the 10 day MA on day 38 to signal the daily cycle decline.





Stocks did break below the daily cycle trend line on day 38, placing stocks in their timing band for a DCL. The only thing missing from labeling day 38 as the DCL is a 5 to 7 day sell off that turned the 10 day MA lower. A one day decline into a DCL would be very unusual. However, stocks are in a daily uptrend. Remember that if a swing low forms above the LOWER cycle band then it will remain in its daily uptrend and trigger a cycle band buy signal.

However, in this situation, stocks formed a swing low above the UPPER daily cycle band. This still triggers a cycle band buy signal. But forming the swing low above the upper daily cycle band could mean that stocks are beginning a runaway more.


I discuss the idea of a runaway move further in the Weekend Report.

This week I am running a 6 week trial subscription special. The 6 week trial subscription will give you full access to the premium site which includes a complete breakdown of the dollar’s daily, weekly, yearly, 3 year and 15 year super cycles. The trial subscription also includes:

1) The Weekend Report, which is posted usually Saturday mornings. It discusses Dollar, Stocks, Gold, Miners, Oil, & Bonds in terms of daily, weekly and yearly cycles – Which includes the Likesmoney Cycle Tracker.

2) The Mid-Week Update. Posted on Wednesday’s is a review of the daily and weekly charts for the above mentioned asset classes.

3)The Weekend Updates take a look of the daily & weekly charts of the Dax, GYX, NATGAS & XLE.

4) Weekly Update of the Bullish Percentile Bingo

5) Frequent updates of my proprietary FAS Buy/Sell Indicator

The goal of the Weekend Report is to develop an on-going framework of expectations using cycle analysis.

For the Likesmoney 6 week trial subscription offer click here.

Current subscribers can access the report here.