Cycle Trading

Oil closed above the 200 day MA on Tuesday.

Tuesday was day 66 for the daily oil cycle. That places oil late in its timing band for a daily cycle decline. But does closing above the 200 day MA indicate that oil is ready for a sustained breakout?

Over the past 4 years the 200 day MA has acted acted as a cycle turning point, either being the peak of a rally or the cycle low. And with oil being late in its timing band for a daily cycle decline, that shifts the odds towards the 200 day MA acting as the peak to this current daily cycle. Which should then be followed by a pullback into a daily cycle low. But once the cycle low is in oil could see a more sustained break higher.