Cycle Trading

Stocks are beginning to have small 40 to 60 point pullbacks.

Setting aside the initial dip in early January and the decline into the March 8th daily cycle low, we are starting to see these measured pullbacks. These type of pullbacks are associated with a runaway move. These dips let stocks to work off some of the overbought conditions and allow the 10 day MA to catch up to price. This can also distort our cycle framework by stretching the length of the daily cycle and also having briefer daily cycle declines like the decline into the March 8th low. And if this is the case we will shift our focus to our cycle band tool.

We discussed on Tuesday that stocks have begun a daily uptrend. A daily uptrend is characterized by peaks above the upper daily cycle band and swing lows forming above the lower daily cycle band. Stocks will remain in their daily uptrend unless the close below the lower daily cycle band.