Cycle Trading

The Dollar

The dollar formed a swing low on Friday.

The dollar printed its lowest point on Thursday, day 33, placing it deep in its timing band for a DCL. At 33 days, the dollar is due for a DCL. Therefore Friday’s swing low signals a new daily cycle. A close above the 10 day MA will confirm the new daily cycle. The dollar is in a daily downtrend. It will remain so unless it closes above it the upper daily cycle band.

Stocks

The weekly charts are turning bullish.

Stocks formed a weekly swing low the previous week and delivered bullish follow through this week. Stocks still need to break above the declining trend line for final confirmation of the new intermediate cycle. And since we suspect this to also mark the yearly cycle low, then our expectation is to see the intermediate cycle right translate and peak on or after week 14. Stocks are in a weekly downtrend. They will remain in its downtrend unless they close above the upper weekly cycle band.

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