Cycle Trading

The Dollar

The dollar printed a swing low on Friday.

The dollar printed its lowest point on Thursday, day 20, placing it in its timing band for a DCL. Friday’s swing low closed back above the 50 day MA to signal a new daily cycle. A close above the 10 day MA will confirm the new daily cycle.

The dollar did close below the lower daily cycle band on Thursday. Closing below the lower daily cycle band signals an end to the daily uptrend and the beginning of a daily downtrend. It also indicates that the intermediate cycle decline has begun.

Stocks

Stocks continued lower this week printing a lower low on Friday, day 37.

At 37 days stocks are in their timing band for a DCL. Stocks have begun to cluster Buying on Weakness days. The clustering of multi-million dollar BOW days are typical of an intermediate cycle low. However, Friday’s 1.26 billion Buying on Weakness is the type of Buying on Weakness seen at multi-year cycle lows. We are looking for a swing low accompanied by a close above the 10 day MA to signal the new daily cycle.

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