Cycle Trading

The Dollar

After rallying on Monday, the dollar declined into Friday.

The dollar lost the 10 day MA on Thursday and delivered more bearish follow through on Friday indicating that the dollar has begun its daily cycle decline. The peak on day 5 indicates a left translated daily cycle formation. With Friday being day 11, the dollar could trend lower for the next 3 to 4 weeks before printing its DCL. The dollar currently is in a daily uptrend. It will remain in its uptrend unless it closes below the lower daily cycle band.

Stocks

I believe that stocks printed an intermediate cycle low on 10/29/18. However, both the Russell and the Banking index have broken below their October lows to form failed daily cycles.

The continued volatility has obscured our daily cycle count. I believe that Friday should be day 27, placing stocks 3 days shy of its timing band for a DCL. What is clear is that stocks are in a daily downtrend. They will remain in their daily downtrend until they close back above the upper daily cycle band.

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